Recession Probability for the Euro Area, Median Estimate (RECRISKEAP50)

Observations

Sep 2026: 2.1106
Updated: Oct 1, 2026 10:01 AM CDT
Next Release Date: Nov 2, 2026
Sep 2026:  2.1106  
Aug 2026:  1.7405  
Jul 2026:  2.3648  
Jun 2026:  3.2130  
May 2026:  4.3175  
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Units:

Percent,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

Fullscreen

Notes

Source: Furno, Francesco  

Source: Giannone, Domenico  

Release: RecessionRisk.com  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the Euro Area. Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. Euro Area series begins January 1985. Produced by Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. For methodology, see: https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/22222_7.html

Suggested Citation:

Furno, Francesco and Giannone, Domenico, Recession Probability for the Euro Area, Median Estimate [RECRISKEAP50], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECRISKEAP50, .

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Nowcast Recession Indicators Euro Area Europe Business Transnational Median Monthly Public Domain: Citation Requested Not Seasonally Adjusted

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