Recession Probability for the Euro Area, Median Estimate (RECRISKEAP50)

Observations

Aug 2026: 1.8490
Updated: Sep 1, 2026 10:54 AM CDT
Next Release Date: Oct 1, 2026
Aug 2026:  1.8490  
Jul 2026:  2.5169  
Jun 2026:  3.4324  
May 2026:  4.7349  
Apr 2026:  5.6917  
View All

Units:

Percent,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

Fullscreen

Notes

Source: Furno, Francesco  

Source: Giannone, Domenico  

Release: RecessionRisk.com  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the Euro Area. Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. Euro Area series begins January 1985. Produced by Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. For methodology, see: https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/22222_7.html

Suggested Citation:

Furno, Francesco and Giannone, Domenico, Recession Probability for the Euro Area, Median Estimate [RECRISKEAP50], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECRISKEAP50, .

Release Tables

Related Data and Content

Content Suggestions

Related Categories

Recession Probabilities Academic Data

Releases

More Series from RecessionRisk.com

Tags

Nowcast Recession Indicators Euro Area Europe Business Transnational Median Monthly Public Domain: Citation Requested Not Seasonally Adjusted

Back to Top

Subscribe to the FRED newsletter

Follow us

 

Need Help?

Questions or Comments
FRED Help
Legal
Privacy Notice & Policy