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Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME)


Mar 2024: 0.30 (+ more)   Updated: Apr 5, 2024 8:02 AM CDT
Mar 2024:  0.30  
Feb 2024:  0.27  
Jan 2024:  0.20  
Dec 2023:  0.23  
Nov 2023:  0.30  
View All


Percentage Points,
Seasonally Adjusted




Source: Sahm, Claudia  

Release: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator  

Units:  Percentage Points, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly


Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.

Suggested Citation:

Sahm, Claudia, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [SAHMREALTIME], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME, April 19, 2024.


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