Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate (RECRISKUSP50)

Observations

Jul 2026: 0.0463
Updated: Aug 10, 2026 3:17 PM CDT
Next Release Date: Sep 1, 2026
Jul 2026:  0.0463  
Jun 2026:  0.1417  
May 2026:  0.0948  
Apr 2026:  0.1922  
Mar 2026:  0.2104  
View All

Units:

Percent,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

Fullscreen

Notes

Source: Furno, Francesco  

Source: Giannone, Domenico  

Release: RecessionRisk.com  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the United States. Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. United States series begins January 1980. Produced by Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. For methodology, see: https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/22222_7.html

Suggested Citation:

Furno, Francesco and Giannone, Domenico, Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate [RECRISKUSP50], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECRISKUSP50, .

Release Tables

Related Data and Content

Content Suggestions

Related Categories

Recession Probabilities Academic Data

Releases

More Series from RecessionRisk.com

Tags

Nowcast Recession Indicators Business Median Monthly Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America Not Seasonally Adjusted

Back to Top

Subscribe to the FRED newsletter

Follow us

 

Need Help?

Questions or Comments
FRED Help
Legal
Privacy Notice & Policy