Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate (RECRISKUSP50)

Observations

Oct 2026: 0.0512
Updated: Nov 2, 2026 12:05 PM CST
Next Release Date: Dec 1, 2026
Oct 2026:  0.0512  
Sep 2026:  0.0859  
Aug 2026:  0.0810  
Jul 2026:  0.0485  
Jun 2026:  0.1405  
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Units:

Percent,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

Fullscreen

Notes

Source: Furno, Francesco  

Source: Giannone, Domenico  

Release: RecessionRisk.com  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the United States. Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. United States series begins January 1980. Produced by Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. For methodology, see: https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/22222_7.html

Suggested Citation:

Furno, Francesco and Giannone, Domenico, Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate [RECRISKUSP50], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECRISKUSP50, .

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Nowcast Recession Indicators Business Median Monthly Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America Not Seasonally Adjusted

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