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Recession Probabilities

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Recession Indicators

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Recession Indicators

Popularity
Updated
Obs End
Obs Start
Title
Frequency
Units
Seas Adj

Popularity
Updated
Obs End
Obs Start
Title
Frequency
Units
Seas Adj

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Percentage Points, Monthly, Seasonally AdjustedDec 1959 to Apr 2026 (May 8)

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJun 1967 to Mar 2026 (May 1)

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Percentage Points, Monthly, Seasonally AdjustedMar 1949 to Apr 2026 (May 8)

Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

+1 or 0, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q4 2025 (Apr 30)

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index

Percentage Points, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q4 2025 (Apr 30)

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