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The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury (constant maturity) yields: Positive values may imply future growth, negative values may imply economic downturns.

View the spread between 10-Year and 3-month Treasury Constant Maturities, which is used to predict recession probabilities.

Series is calculated as the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

View the spread between 3-month LIBOR and Treasury bills, which indicates perceived credit risk.

Series is calculated as the spread between 3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate (ROUND_B1_CLOSE_13WK_2M)) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFRM). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

Series is calculated as the spread between 3-Month AA Financial Commercial Paper (RIFSPPFAAD90NB) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

Series is calculated as the spread between 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_1YEAR) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

View data of the spreads between a computed index of all bonds below investment grade and a spot Treasury curve.

Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond© (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). ©2017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "Moody's"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information ("Moody's Information") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

Series is calculated as the spread between 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_5YEAR) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

View a 10-year yield estimated from the average yields of a variety of Treasury securities with different maturities derived from the Treasury yield curve.

Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond© (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAAA) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF). ©2017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "Moody's"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information ("Moody's Information") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

Series is calculated as the spread between 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_3MONTH) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

View a 1-year yield estimated from the average yields of a variety of Treasury securities with different maturities derived from the Treasury yield curve.

Series is calculated as the spread between 6-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TB6MS) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS).

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

Series is calculated as the spread between 6-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_6MONTH) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

In May of 2016, the source discovered errors in the calculation of the CFSI and began a detailed review of the index and its underlying model. Following that review, the source decided to discontinue the CFSI. https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/our-research/indicators-and-data/cleveland-financial-stress-index.aspx The source has posted to their website a message regarding this release: Cleveland Financial Stress Index under review and a revised index expected in the fourth quarter of 2016. A thorough review of the index is being conducted to both simplify the index and enhance its robustness, while also taking into consideration changes in financial markets and institutions. This review and the revisions to the CFSI are expected to be completed sometime during the fourth quarter of this year, and additional details will be made available at that time. Thank you for your patience while we improve the CFSI. This chart shows the contribution of the Treasury yield curve spread to the CFSI. The spread is a useful predictor of recessions and real economic activity. It is calculated as the difference between the 3-Month and 10-Year US Treasury yields. The spread captures the combination of long-term uncertainty and short-term liquidity needed at the outset of- and during-recessionary times.