This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. It is based on a mathematical description of the way that recessions differ from expansions. The index corresponds to the probability (measured in percent) that the underlying true economic regime is one of recession based on the available data. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators that may not be released until several years after the event, this index is entirely mechanical, is based solely on currently available GDP data and is reported every quarter. Due to the possibility of data revisions and the challenges in accurately identifying the business cycle phase, the index is calculated for the quarter just preceding the most recently available GDP numbers. Once the index is calculated for that quarter, it is never subsequently revised. The value at every date was inferred using only data that were available one quarter after that date and as those data were reported at the time. If the value of the index rises above 67% that is a historically reliable indicator that the economy has entered a recession. Once this threshold has been passed, if it falls below 33% that is a reliable indicator that the recession is over. For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 20 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2016), "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/EPU_BBD_Mar2016.pdf)
The World Uncertainty Index determines uncertainty using the frequency of the selfsame word in the quarterly Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. Please see Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom and Davide Furceri (2018), 'The World Uncertainty Index' (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf) for additional explanation.
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 20 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2016), "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/EPU_BBD_Mar2016.pdf)
BEA Account Code: A191RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCERG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCCRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A001RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCCRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DTENRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
Source ID: FL010000336.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FL010000336&t=) provided by the source.
BEA Account Code: A191RV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: PC001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).
BEA Account Code: DGALRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B358RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCERV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: IA001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).
BEA Account Code: A001RV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DHSGRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DMINRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DHLCRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DOWNRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DSERRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DSERRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DGDSRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DGDSRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DDURRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B712RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DFHHRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B825RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: BB03RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: Y694RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DHUTRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCERJ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DNDGRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
Source ID: FL010000276.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FL010000276&t=) provided by the source.
BEA Account Code: DNRGRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: Y033RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A006RJ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A937RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A680RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B195RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B701RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B908RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B642RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B765RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B193RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DGOERG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: Y012RG A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)
BEA Account Code: B191RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A755RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DHUTRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A354RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A823RJ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: Y018RG A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)
BEA Account Code: A825RJ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DTEXRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DOCMRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A863RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: BB00RV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.