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Deflation Probability (STLPPMDEF)


May 2024: 0.00033 (+ more)   Updated: May 31, 2024 2:45 PM CDT
May 2024:  0.00033  
Apr 2024:  0.00036  
Mar 2024:  0.00369  
Feb 2024:  0.03274  
Jan 2024:  0.02220  
View All


Not Seasonally Adjusted




Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures

Units:  Probability, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly


This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero.

For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure.

As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued.

As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series.

As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

Suggested Citation:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Deflation Probability [STLPPMDEF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLPPMDEF, June 12, 2024.


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