Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office
Release: Budget and Economic Outlook
Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031, this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment".
The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.
U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment [NROU], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU, May 31, 2023.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Release: Employment Situation
The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.
This rate is also defined as the U-3 measure of labor underutilization.
The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)'
The source code is: LNU04000000
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate [UNRATENSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATENSA, May 31, 2023.