Federal Reserve Economic Data

FRED Economic Data, St. Louis FED

Unemployment Rate-Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment

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(a) Unemployment Rate, Percent, Seasonally Adjusted (UNRATE)
The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. This rate is also defined as the U-3 measure of labor underutilization. The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS14000000

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(b) Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment, Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NROU)
Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

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    Unemployment Rate-Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
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    Notes

    Unemployment Rate  (UNRATE)

    Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  

    Release: Employment Situation  

    Units:  Percent, Seasonally Adjusted

    Frequency:  Monthly

    Notes:

    The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.

    This rate is also defined as the U-3 measure of labor underutilization.

    The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)'

    The source code is: LNS14000000

    Suggested Citation:

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, April 1, 2025.

    Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment  (NROU)

    Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office  

    Release: Budget and Economic Outlook  

    Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Frequency:  Quarterly

    Notes:

    Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031, this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment".

    The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

    Suggested Citation:

    U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment [NROU], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU, April 1, 2025.

    Release Tables

    Employment Situation

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    Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Related Categories

    Unemployment Rate Current Population Survey (Household Survey) Population, Employment, & Labor Markets

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    More Series from Employment Situation More Series from Budget and Economic Outlook

    Tags

    Labor Underutilization Headline Figure Civilian 16 Years + Labor Current Population Survey (Household Survey) Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Projection Quarterly Not Seasonally Adjusted

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