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NOTES

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: H.15 Selected Interest Rates  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Averages of daily figures.

For additional historical federal funds rate data, please see Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954.

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate. As previously stated, this rate influences the effective federal funds rate through open market operations or by buying and selling of government bonds (government debt).(2) More specifically, the Federal Reserve decreases liquidity by selling government bonds, thereby raising the federal funds rate because banks have less liquidity to trade with other banks. Similarly, the Federal Reserve can increase liquidity by buying government bonds, decreasing the federal funds rate because banks have excess liquidity for trade. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to buy or sell bonds depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may set a higher federal funds rate target to temper economic activity. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may set a lower federal funds rate target to spur greater economic activity. Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets.
The federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2)
References
(1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "Federal funds." Fedpoints, August 2007.
(2) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Monetary Policy".

Suggested Citation:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Effective Rate [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS, March 28, 2024.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

Release: Gross Domestic Product  

Units:  Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

BEA Account Code: A551RC

A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Corporate Profits After Tax with Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj) [CPATAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPATAX, March 28, 2024.

Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development  

Release: Main Economic Indicators  

Units:  Index 2015=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

OECD Descriptor ID: SPASTT01
OECD unit ID: IDX
OECD country ID: USA

All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

Suggested Citation:

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Share Prices: All Shares/Broad: Total for United States [SPASTT01USM661N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPASTT01USM661N, March 28, 2024.

Source: World Bank  

Release: Global Financial Development  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Annual

Notes:

Total value of all listed shares in a stock market as a percentage of GDP.

Value of listed shares to GDP, calculated using the following deflation method: {(0.5)*[Ft/P_et + Ft-1/P_et-1]}/[GDPt/P_at] where F is stock market capitalization, P_e is end-of period CPI, and P_a is average annual CPI. End-of period CPI (IFS line 64M..ZF or, if not available, 64Q..ZF) and annual CPI (IFS line 64..ZF) are from the IMF's International Financial Statistics. Standard & Poor's, Global Stock Markets Factbook and supplemental S&P data)

Source Code: GFDD.DM.01

Suggested Citation:

World Bank, Stock Market Capitalization to GDP for United States [DDDM01USA156NWDB], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB, March 28, 2024.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

Release: Gross Domestic Product  

Units:  Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

BEA Account Code: A191RC

Gross domestic product (GDP), the featured measure of U.S. output, is the market value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.For more information, see the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product [GDP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP, March 28, 2024.

Source: Moody’s  

Release: Moody's Daily Corporate Bond Yield Averages

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

These instruments are based on bonds with maturities 20 years and above.

© 2017, Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “Moody’s”). All rights reserved. Moody’s ratings and other information (“Moody’s Information”) are proprietary to Moody’s and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody’s Information is licensed to Client by Moody’s. MOODY’S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

Suggested Citation:

Moody’s, Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield [BAA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA, March 28, 2024.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  

Release: Consumer Price Index  

Units:  Index 1982-1984=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items (CPIAUCSL) is a price index of a basket of goods and services paid by urban consumers. Percent changes in the price index measure the inflation rate between any two time periods. The most common inflation metric is the percent change from one year ago. It can also represent the buying habits of urban consumers. This particular index includes roughly 88 percent of the total population, accounting for wage earners, clerical workers, technical workers, self-employed, short-term workers, unemployed, retirees, and those not in the labor force.

The CPIs are based on prices for food, clothing, shelter, and fuels; transportation fares; service fees (e.g., water and sewer service); and sales taxes. Prices are collected monthly from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 26,000 retail establishments across 87 urban areas. To calculate the index, price changes are averaged with weights representing their importance in the spending of the particular group. The index measures price changes (as a percent change) from a predetermined reference date. In addition to the original unadjusted index distributed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also releases a seasonally adjusted index. The unadjusted series reflects all factors that may influence a change in prices. However, it can be very useful to look at the seasonally adjusted CPI, which removes the effects of seasonal changes, such as weather, school year, production cycles, and holidays.

The CPI can be used to recognize periods of inflation and deflation. Significant increases in the CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of inflation, and significant decreases in CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of deflation. However, because the CPI includes volatile food and oil prices, it might not be a reliable measure of inflationary and deflationary periods. For a more accurate detection, the core CPI (CPILFESL) is often used. When using the CPI, please note that it is not applicable to all consumers and should not be used to determine relative living costs. Additionally, the CPI is a statistical measure vulnerable to sampling error since it is based on a sample of prices and not the complete average.

For more information on the consumer price indexes, see:
Bureau of Economic Analysis. "CPI Detailed Report." 2013.
Handbook of Methods
Understanding the CPI: Frequently Asked Questions

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average [CPIAUCSL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL, March 28, 2024.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

Release: Gross Domestic Product  

Units:  Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

BEA Account Code: A055RC

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) [CP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP, March 28, 2024.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

Release: Gross Domestic Product  

Units:  Index 2017=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

BEA Account Code: A191RD

The number of decimal places reported varies over time. A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA).

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator [GDPDEF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF, March 28, 2024.

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