Federal Reserve Economic Data

FRED Graph


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Notes

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: Interest Rate Spreads

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average.
Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department.

Suggested Citation:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate [T5YIEM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIEM, .

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: Interest Rate Spreads

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

This series is a measure of expected inflation (on average) over the five-year period that begins five years from today.

This series is constructed as:
(((((1+((BC_10YEAR-TC_10YEAR)/100))^10)/((1+((BC_5YEAR-TC_5YEAR)/100))^5))^0.2)-1)*100

where BC10_YEAR, TC_10YEAR, BC_5YEAR, and TC_5YEAR are the 10 year and 5 year nominal and inflation adjusted Treasury securities.
Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department.

Suggested Citation:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate [T5YIFR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR, .

Source: University of Michigan  

Release: Surveys of Consumers  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Median expected price change next 12 months, Surveys of Consumers. The most recent value is not shown due to an agreement with the source.

This data should be cited as follows: "Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation© [MICH], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MICH/, (Accessed on date)"

Copyright, 2016, Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan. Reprinted with permission.

Suggested Citation:

University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation [MICH], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MICH, .

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas  

Release: Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate  

Units:  6-Month Annualized Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

Suggested Citation:

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate [PCETRIM6M680SFRBDAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCETRIM6M680SFRBDAL, .

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