Federal Reserve Economic Data

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT)

Observations

Nov 2025: 0.43
Updated: Dec 18, 2025 2:12 PM CST
Next Release Date: Jan 9, 2026
Nov 2025:  0.43  
Oct 2025:  0.28  
Sep 2025:  0.23  
Aug 2025:  0.13  
Jul 2025:  0.10  
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Units:

Percentage Points,
Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

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Notes

Source: Sahm, Claudia  

Release: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator  

Units:  Percentage Points, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

Suggested Citation:

Sahm, Claudia, Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [SAHMCURRENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT, .

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Tags

Claudia Sahm Recession Indicators Academic Data Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America

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