Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT)

Observations

Jul 2026: -0.03
Updated: Aug 7, 2026 8:42 AM CDT
Next Release Date: Sep 4, 2026
Jul 2026:  -0.03  
Jun 2026:  0.07  
May 2026:  0.10  
Apr 2026:  0.13  
Mar 2026:  0.20  
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Units:

Percentage Points,
Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

Fullscreen

Notes

Source: Sahm, Claudia  

Release: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator  

Units:  Percentage Points, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

Suggested Citation:

Sahm, Claudia, Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [SAHMCURRENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT, .

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Tags

Claudia Sahm Recession Indicators Academic Data Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America

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