Federal Reserve Economic Data

FRED Economic Data, St. Louis FED

FRED Graph

1Y5Y10YMax
to
Date:
Line 1 - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
Line 1
(a) Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment, Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NROU)
Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
  Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD
to

Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.

You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.

Type keywords to search for data

    Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.

    For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line. Or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates, a and b, by using the formula a - b.

    Use the assigned data series variables (a, b, c, etc.) together with operators (+, -, *, /, ^, etc.), parentheses and constants (1, 1.5, 2, etc.) to create your own formula (e.g., 1/a, a-b, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100). As noted above, you may add other data series to this line before entering a formula.

    Finally, you can change the units of your new series.

    Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
        Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD

    Line 1 - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
    Line 2
    (a) Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED), Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NROUST)
    This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: NROU (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU)), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)." The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

    Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
      Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD
    to

    Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.

    You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.

    Type keywords to search for data

      Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.

      For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line. Or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates, a and b, by using the formula a - b.

      Use the assigned data series variables (a, b, c, etc.) together with operators (+, -, *, /, ^, etc.), parentheses and constants (1, 1.5, 2, etc.) to create your own formula (e.g., 1/a, a-b, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100). As noted above, you may add other data series to this line before entering a formula.

      Finally, you can change the units of your new series.

      Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
          Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD

      ADDLINE
      Type keywords to search for data
      Create user-defined line
      You can customize a graph by adding a straight line between two data points.
      FORMAT GRAPH
      Details
      Display
      Customize
      Frame
      Plot area
      Text

      Line 1
      Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
      Line details & color

      Line style, thickness, color and position


      Line 2
      Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED)
      Line details & color

      Line style, thickness, color and position



      Fullscreen

      Notes

      Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment  (NROU)

      Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office  

      Release: Budget and Economic Outlook  

      Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

      Frequency:  Quarterly

      Notes:

      Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031, this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment".

      The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

      Suggested Citation:

      U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment [NROU], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU, April 10, 2025.

      Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED)  (NROUST)

      Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office  

      Release: Budget and Economic Outlook  

      Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

      Frequency:  Quarterly

      Notes:

      This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: An Overview of the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031. The suggested substitute for this series is "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment" (NROU), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)."

      The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

      Suggested Citation:

      U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) [NROUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROUST, April 10, 2025.

      Release Tables

      Related Data and Content

      Data Suggestions Based On Your Search

      Content Suggestions

      Related Categories

      Population, Employment, & Labor Markets

      Releases

      More Series from Budget and Economic Outlook

      Tags

      Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Projection Unemployment Rate Quarterly Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested Not Seasonally Adjusted United States of America Short-Term Discontinued

      Need Help?

      Questions or Comments
      FRED Help

      Subscribe to the FRED newsletter

      Follow us

      Back to Top
      Color format