Federal Reserve Economic Data

View data of the CPI, or an inflation measure derived from tracking the changes in the weighted-average price of a basket of common goods and services.

View the annual rate of economic output, or the inflation-adjusted value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used. International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.

View data of the inflation-adjusted interest rates on 10-year Treasury securities with a constant maturity.

The Sticky Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively infrequently. Because these goods and services change price relatively infrequently, they are thought to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a more frequent basis. One possible explanation for sticky prices could be the costs firms incur when changing price. To obtain more information about this release see: Michael F. Bryan, and Brent H. Meyer. “Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So.” Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (May 19, 2010): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002 (https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002).

View the inflation-adjusted value of the 50th percentile of the U.S. income distribution, as estimated by the Census Bureau.

View data of PCE, an index that measures monthly changes in the price of consumer goods and services as a means of analyzing inflation.

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

The "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food & Energy" is an aggregate of prices paid by urban consumers for a typical basket of goods, excluding food and energy. This measurement, known as "Core CPI," is widely used by economists because food and energy have very volatile prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines and measures the official CPI, and more information can be found in the FAQ (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm) or in this article (https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/cpihom.pdf).

View a measure of the average expected inflation over the five-year period that begins five years from the date data are reported.

BEA Account Code: DPCERG The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. For example, if the price of beef rises, shoppers may buy less beef and more chicken. The PCE Price Index is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which revises previously published PCE data to reflect updated information or new methodology, providing consistency across decades of data that's valuable for researchers. They also offer the series as a Chain-Type index, as above. The PCE price index is used primarily for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. The PCE Price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The PCE Price Index is similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for urban consumers. The two indexes, which have their own purposes and uses, are constructed differently, resulting in different inflation rates. For more information on the PCE price index, see: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Prices & Inflation (https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-prices-inflation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Differences between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/differences-between-the-consumer-price-index-and-the-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index.pdf)

BEA Account Code: DPCCRG The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. For example, if car prices rise, car sales may decline while bicycle sales increase. The PCE Price Index is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which revises previously published PCE data to reflect updated information or new methodology, providing consistency across decades of data that's valuable for researchers. They also offer the series as a Chain-Type index and excluding food and energy products, as above. The PCE price index less food excluding food and energy is used primarily for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting future values of the PCE price index. The PCE Price Index is similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for urban consumers. The two indexes, which have their own purposes and uses, are constructed differently, resulting in different inflation rates. For more information on the PCE price index, see: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Prices & Inflation (https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-prices-inflation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Differences between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/differences-between-the-consumer-price-index-and-the-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index.pdf)

OECD Descriptor ID: CPALTT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: USA All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

View the annual rate of economic output, or the inflation-adjusted value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

BEA Account Code: A191RD The number of decimal places reported varies over time. A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf) (NIPA).

View data of the CPI, or an inflation measure derived from tracking the changes in the weighted-average price of a basket of common goods and services.

Median Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of core inflation calculated the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Ohio State University. Median CPI was created as a different way to get a 'Core CPI' measure, or a better measure of underlying inflation trends. To calculate the Median CPI, the Cleveland Fed analyzes the median price change of the goods and services published by the BLS. The median price change is the price change that's right in the middle of the long list of all of the price changes. This series excludes 49.5% of the CPI components with the highest and lowest one-month price changes from each tail of the price-change distribution resulting in a Median CPI Inflation Estimate. According to research from the Cleveland Fed, the Median CPI provides a better signal of the inflation trend than either the all-items CPI or the CPI excluding food and energy. According to newer research done at the Cleveland Fed, the Median CPI is even better at PCE inflation in the near and longer term than the core PCE. For further information, visit The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/median-cpi#background).

For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).

Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

BEA Account Code: DPCCRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

Median expected price change next 12 months, Surveys of Consumers. The most recent value is not shown due to an agreement with the source. This data should be cited as follows: "Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation© [MICH], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MICH/, (Accessed on date)" Copyright, 2016, Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan. Reprinted with permission.

Handbook of Methods - (https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/cpihom.pdf) Understanding the CPI: Frequently Asked Questions - (http://stats.bls.gov:80/cpi/cpifaq.htm)

On April 26, 2006, The Employment Cost Index converted to the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification System (SOC). In addition, several computational changes were introduced, including rebasing all series to December 2005=100 from June 1989=100, the introduction of new employment weights and seasonal adjustment factors. For more detailed information on NAICS and SOC, including background and definitions, please see the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) websites: https://www.bls.gov/bls/naics.htm (https://www.bls.gov/bls/naics.htm) and http://www.bls.gov/soc/home.htm (http://www.bls.gov/soc/home.htm).

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. For more information, please visit the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. For more information, please visit the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>.

Handbook of Methods - (https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/cpihom.pdf) Understanding the CPI: Frequently Asked Questions - (http://stats.bls.gov:80/cpi/cpifaq.htm)

View data of PCE, an index that measures monthly changes in the price of consumer goods and services as a means of analyzing inflation.