Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months. This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.
The Household Debt Service Ratio (DSR) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP) is the ratio of total required household debt payments to total disposable income. The DSR is divided into two parts. The Mortgage DSR (MDSP) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP) is total quarterly required mortgage payments divided by total quarterly disposable personal income. The Consumer DSR (CDSP) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CDSP) is total quarterly scheduled consumer debt payments divided by total quarterly disposable personal income. The Mortgage DSR and the Consumer DSR sum to the DSR. For more information, please visit the Board of Governors (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/about.htm).
For further information, please refer to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's H.8 release, online at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
BEA Account Code: DPCERY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The 100 largest banks are measured by consolidated foreign and domestic assets.
BEA Account Code: A014RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
Source ID: LA153165105.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=LA153165105&t=) provided by the source.
BEA Account Code: A822RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The 100 largest banks are measured by consolidated foreign and domestic assets.
Charge-off rates are annualized, net of recoveries.
BEA Account Code: A019RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A006RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
Source ID: FA893065015.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FA893065015&t=) provided by the source.
Source ID: FA673065500.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FA673065500&t=) provided by the source.
For further information, please refer to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's H.8 release, online at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/.
BEA Account Code: A011RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: Y033RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A008RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DSERRY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
For further information, please refer to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's H.8 release, online at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/.
BEA Account Code: Y001RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DGDSRY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DDURRY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A823RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A829RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A007RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DNDGRY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A824RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A009RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
For further information, please refer to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's H.8 release (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8)
As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinued; the July 7, 2017 vintage is the final estimate from this model. The Board decided to stop updating the LMCI because they believe it no longer provides a good summary of changes in U.S. labor market conditions. Specifically, model estimates turned out to be more sensitive to the detrending procedure than expected, the measurement of some indicators in recent years has changed in ways that significantly degraded their signal content, and including average hourly earnings as an indicator did not provide a meaningful link between labor market conditions and wage growth. The LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19, seasonally-adjusted, labor market indicators. Users can read about the included indicators at http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2014/updating-the-labor-market-conditions-index-20141001.html. Users of the LMCI should take note that the entire history of the LMCI may revise each month. Three sources contribute to such revisions. The first source is new data that were not available at the time of the employment report. In particular, at the time of the Employment Situation report each month, the quit rate and hiring rate will be missing for the last two months of the sample because the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is published with a longer lag than the model's other indicators. In subsequent months, as these data become available, the LMCI will revise. The second source of revision comes from revisions to existing data. Many labor market indicators are subject to revision as additional source data become available or to incorporate annual benchmark revisions or updated seasonal adjustment factors. Prominent examples in the LMCI include the three payroll employment series from the Current Employment Statistics program. The third source of revision is inherent to the model. The LMCI is derived from the Kalman smoother, meaning that the estimate of the index in any particular month is the model's best assessment given all past and future observations. Thus, when a new month of data is added to the sample, the model will revise its estimate of history in response to the new information. In practice, these revisions tend to be modest and concentrated in the most-recent six months of the sample.
BEA Account Code: A825RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Change of Inventory Investment represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Change of Inventory Investment provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
BEA Account Code: DHUTRY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
For further information, please refer to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's H.8 release, online at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/.
BEA Account Code: A020RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Charge-off rates are annualized, net of recoveries. The 100 largest banks are measured by consolidated foreign and domestic assets.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Structures represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Structures provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
For further information, please refer to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's H.8 release, online at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Charge-off rates are annualized, net of recoveries. The 100 largest banks are measured by consolidated foreign and domestic assets.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment provides to real GDP growth. For any forecasts occurring on or before the second quarter of 2013, the Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment was actually Equipment and Software. Currently, Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment excludes Software. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
Source ID: FA893065505.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FA893065505&t=) provided by the source.
Source ID: FA103065405.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FA103065405&t=) provided by the source.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Source ID: FA123165005.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FA123165005&t=) provided by the source.
For further information, please refer to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's H.8 release, online at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Source ID: FA154104905.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FA154104905&t=) provided by the source.
Source ID: FA413065533.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FA413065533&t=) provided by the source.
Source ID: LA153165105.A For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=LA153165105&t=) provided by the source.
Source ID: FA403065105.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FA403065105&t=) provided by the source.
Source ID: FA103165455.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FA103165455&t=) provided by the source.