Federal Reserve Economic Data

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME)

Observation:

Oct 2024: 0.43 (+ more)   Updated: Nov 1, 2024 7:59 AM CDT
Oct 2024:  0.43  
Sep 2024:  0.50  
Aug 2024:  0.57  
Jul 2024:  0.53  
Jun 2024:  0.43  
View All

Units:

Percentage Points,
Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

NOTES

Source: Sahm, Claudia  

Release: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator  

Units:  Percentage Points, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.

Suggested Citation:

Sahm, Claudia, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [SAHMREALTIME], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME, .

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