Federal Reserve Economic Data

FRED Economic Data, St. Louis FED

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME)

Observations

Feb 2025: 0.27
Updated: Mar 7, 2025 7:58 AM CST
Next Release Date: Apr 4, 2025
Feb 2025:  0.27  
Jan 2025:  0.37  
Dec 2024:  0.40  
Nov 2024:  0.43  
Oct 2024:  0.43  
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Percentage Points,
Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly
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(a) Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, Percentage Points, Seasonally Adjusted (SAHMREALTIME)

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    Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
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    Notes

    Source: Sahm, Claudia  

    Release: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator  

    Units:  Percentage Points, Seasonally Adjusted

    Frequency:  Monthly

    Notes:

    Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

    This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.

    Suggested Citation:

    Sahm, Claudia, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [SAHMREALTIME], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME, April 4, 2025.

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    Claudia Sahm Recession Indicators Academic Data Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America

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