Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office  

Release: Budget and Economic Outlook  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031, this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment".

The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office  

Release: Budget and Economic Outlook  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: An Overview of the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031. The suggested substitute for this series is "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment" (NROU), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)."

The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  

Release: Employment Situation  

Units:  Percent, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.

This rate is also defined as the U-3 measure of labor underutilization.

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)'

The source code is: LNS14000000