View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

View a measure of the average expected inflation over the five-year period that begins five years from the date data are reported.

This series measures the probability that the expected personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 months will range between 1.5 and 2.5 percent. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/). As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/). As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

This series measures the probability that the expected personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 months will range between 0 and 1.5 percent. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/). As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

This series measures the probability that the expected personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 months will exceed 2.5 percent. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/). As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

BEA Account Code: DPCXRX For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCXRA For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCXRAM A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

BEA Account Code: IB001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: IB001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: LA001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: DPCCRA For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: PP001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: PQ001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: LB001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: DPCXRC For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCCRX For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: LA001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: LB001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: DPCXRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCXRGM A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

BEA Account Code: PP001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: PQ001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: DPCCRGM A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

BEA Account Code: IA001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: DPCCRAM A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

BEA Account Code: IA001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

BEA Account Code: DPCCRC For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCCRG The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. For example, if car prices rise, car sales may decline while bicycle sales increase. The PCE Price Index is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which revises previously published PCE data to reflect updated information or new methodology, providing consistency across decades of data that's valuable for researchers. They also offer the series as a Chain-Type index and excluding food and energy products, as above. The PCE price index less food excluding food and energy is used primarily for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting future values of the PCE price index. The PCE Price Index is similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for urban consumers. The two indexes, which have their own purposes and uses, are constructed differently, resulting in different inflation rates. For more information on the PCE price index, see: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Prices & Inflation (https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-prices-inflation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Differences between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/differences-between-the-consumer-price-index-and-the-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index.pdf)

BEA Account Code: DPCERG The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. For example, if the price of beef rises, shoppers may buy less beef and more chicken. The PCE Price Index is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which revises previously published PCE data to reflect updated information or new methodology, providing consistency across decades of data that's valuable for researchers. They also offer the series as a Chain-Type index, as above. The PCE price index is used primarily for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. The PCE Price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The PCE Price Index is similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for urban consumers. The two indexes, which have their own purposes and uses, are constructed differently, resulting in different inflation rates. For more information on the PCE price index, see: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Prices & Inflation (https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-prices-inflation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Differences between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/differences-between-the-consumer-price-index-and-the-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index.pdf)

BEA Account Code: B983RS For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: B983RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: LB001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

BEA Account Code: LB001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

BEA Account Code: LA001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

BEA Account Code: BB03RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: CB001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

BEA Account Code: DPCCRA For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCXRL For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCXRX For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCXRA For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCCRX For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCXRZ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCXRC For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCCRZ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: IA001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

BEA Account Code: IA001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

BEA Account Code: IB001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

BEA Account Code: IB001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

BEA Account Code: PB001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

BEA Account Code: A001RD The number of decimal places reported varies over time. A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)