FRED Graph

Notes

Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office

Release: Budget and Economic Outlook

Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Quarterly

Notes:

Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031, this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment".

The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment [NROU], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU, .

Unemployment Rate (UNRATE)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Release: Employment Situation

Units: Percent, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Monthly

Notes:

The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.

This rate is also defined as the U-3 measure of labor underutilization.

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)'

The source code is: LNS14000000

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, .

FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median (UNRATEMD)

Source: U.S. Federal Open Market Committee

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Release: Summary of Economic Projections

Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Annual

Notes:

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections.

Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Federal Open Market Committee and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median [UNRATEMD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATEMD, .

Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median (UNRATEMDLR)

Source: U.S. Federal Open Market Committee

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Release: Summary of Economic Projections

Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Not Applicable

Notes:

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, unemployment, and federal funds rate to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term.

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections.

Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Federal Open Market Committee and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median [UNRATEMDLR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATEMDLR, .