FRED Graph


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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: St. Louis Fed Economic News Index  

Units:  Percent Change at Annual Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For more information, see Grover, Sean P.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; and McCracken, Michael W.: A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth.

Suggested Citation:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast [STLENI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLENI, .

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

Release: Gross Domestic Product  

Units:  Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

BEA Account Code: A191RX

Real gross domestic product is the inflation adjusted value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.For more information see the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA). For more information, please visit the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1, .

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

Release: Personal Income and Outlays  

Units:  Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

BEA Account Code: W875RX
A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real personal income excluding current transfer receipts [W875RX1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W875RX1, .

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  

Release: Employment Situation  

Units:  Thousands of Persons, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed. This measure accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who contribute to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This measure provides useful insights into the current economic situation because it can represent the number of jobs added or lost in an economy. Increases in employment might indicate that businesses are hiring which might also suggest that businesses are growing. Additionally, those who are newly employed have increased their personal incomes, which means (all else constant) their disposable incomes have also increased, thus fostering further economic expansion.

Generally, the U.S. labor force and levels of employment and unemployment are subject to fluctuations due to seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts the data to offset the seasonal effects to show non-seasonal changes: for example, women's participation in the labor force; or a general decline in the number of employees, a possible indication of a downturn in the economy. To closely examine seasonal and non-seasonal changes, the BLS releases two monthly statistical measures: the seasonally adjusted All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) and All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYNSA), which is not seasonally adjusted.

The series comes from the 'Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey).'

The source code is: CES0000000001

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, .

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta  

Release: GDPNow  

Units:  Percent Change at Annual Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

GDPNow is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches. The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP with the chain-weighting methodology used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow release complements the quarterly GDP release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Atlanta Fed recalculates and updates their GDPNow forecasts (called "nowcasts") throughout the quarter as new data are released, up until the BEA releases its "advance estimate" of GDP for that quarter. The St. Louis Fed constructs a quarterly time series for this dataset, in which both historical and current observations values are combined. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA's release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter.

For futher information visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Suggested Citation:

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDPNow [GDPNOW], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW, .

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