FRED Graph

Source: Chauvet, Marcelle

Source: Piger, Jeremy Max  

Release: U.S. Recession Probabilities  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996.

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3.

Source: Wilshire Associates  

Release: Wilshire Indexes  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

The observations for the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Full Cap Index represent the daily index value at market close. The market typically closes at 4 PM ET, except for holidays when it sometimes closes early.

The total market indexes are total market returns, which do include reinvested dividends. The designation Full Cap for an index signifies a float adjusted market capitalization that includes shares of stock not considered available to "ordinary" investors. Copyright, 2016, Wilshire Associates Incorporated. Reprinted with permission. For more information about the various indexes, visit Wilshire Associates.