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Source: Hamilton, James
Release: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index
Units: +1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency: Quarterly
The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%.
For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.
Hamilton, James, Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator [JHDUSRGDPBR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHDUSRGDPBR, .
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Release: Employment Situation
Units: Percent, Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency: Monthly
The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.
This rate is also defined as the U-3 measure of labor underutilization.
The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)'
The source code is: LNS14000000
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, .
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