Federal Reserve Economic Data

Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP (BBKMCLA)

Sep 2025: -2.01377
Updated: Jan 5, 2026 7:32 AM CST
Next Release Date: Not Available
Sep 2025:  -2.01377  
Aug 2025:  -1.90547  
Jul 2025:  -0.72571  
Jun 2025:  -1.59920  
May 2025:  -2.00371  
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Units:

Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period,
Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

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Notes

Source: Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center  

Release: Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes  

Units:  Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The lagging subcomponent of the cycle expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
ave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1

Suggested Citation:

Indiana University. Indiana Business Research Center, Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP [BBKMCLA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMCLA, .

Release Tables

Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes

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