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Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP (BBKMCLE)


Mar 2024: 0.46140 (+ more)   Updated: Apr 29, 2024 7:31 AM CDT
Mar 2024:  0.46140  
Feb 2024:  0.50044  
Jan 2024:  0.50139  
Dec 2023:  0.55901  
Nov 2023:  0.55550  
View All


Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period,
Seasonally Adjusted




Source: Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center  

Release: Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes  

Units:  Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly


The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1

Suggested Citation:

Indiana University. Indiana Business Research Center, Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP [BBKMCLE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMCLE, May 30, 2024.


Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes

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