Categories > Academic Data > Recession Probabilities
Observation:
Oct 2018: 0.8 (+ more)Oct 2018: | 0.8 | |
Sep 2018: | 0.3 | |
Aug 2018: | 0.1 | |
Jul 2018: | 0.0 | |
Jun 2018: | 0.0 | |
View All |
Units:
Percent,Frequency:
MonthlyData in this graph are copyrighted. Please review the copyright information in the series notes before sharing.
Source: Piger, Jeremy Max
Source: Chauvet, Marcelle
Release: U.S. Recession Probabilities
Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency: Monthly
Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)
For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.
(http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/research/published-papers/chauvet-and-piger_2008_jour.pdf)
For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 at http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm.
Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N, February 23, 2019.
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