Federal Reserve Economic Data

FRED Economic Data, St. Louis FED

FRED Graph

1Y5Y10YMax
to
Date:
Line 1 - Real Gross Domestic Product
Line 1
(a) Real Gross Domestic Product, Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (A191RL1Q225SBEA)
BEA Account Code: A191RL Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes. For more information about this series, please visit the Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov/national/).

Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
  Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD
to

Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.

You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.

Type keywords to search for data

    Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.

    For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line. Or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates, a and b, by using the formula a - b.

    Use the assigned data series variables (a, b, c, etc.) together with operators (+, -, *, /, ^, etc.), parentheses and constants (1, 1.5, 2, etc.) to create your own formula (e.g., 1/a, a-b, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100). As noted above, you may add other data series to this line before entering a formula.

    Finally, you can change the units of your new series.

    Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
        Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD

    Line 1 - Real Gross Domestic Product
    Line 2
    (a) GDPNow, Percent Change at Annual Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (GDPNOW)
    GDPNow is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches. The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP with the chain-weighting methodology used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow release complements the quarterly GDP release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Atlanta Fed recalculates and updates their GDPNow forecasts (called "nowcasts") throughout the quarter as new data are released, up until the BEA releases its "advance estimate" of GDP for that quarter. The St. Louis Fed constructs a quarterly time series for this dataset, in which both historical and current observations values are combined. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA's release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For futher information visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1).

    Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
      Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD
    to

    Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.

    You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.

    Type keywords to search for data

      Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.

      For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line. Or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates, a and b, by using the formula a - b.

      Use the assigned data series variables (a, b, c, etc.) together with operators (+, -, *, /, ^, etc.), parentheses and constants (1, 1.5, 2, etc.) to create your own formula (e.g., 1/a, a-b, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100). As noted above, you may add other data series to this line before entering a formula.

      Finally, you can change the units of your new series.

      Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
          Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD

      Line 1 - Real Gross Domestic Product
      Line 3
      (a) Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP, Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted (BBKMCLE)
      The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1

      Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
        Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD
      to

      Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.

      You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.

      Type keywords to search for data

        Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.

        For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line. Or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates, a and b, by using the formula a - b.

        Use the assigned data series variables (a, b, c, etc.) together with operators (+, -, *, /, ^, etc.), parentheses and constants (1, 1.5, 2, etc.) to create your own formula (e.g., 1/a, a-b, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100). As noted above, you may add other data series to this line before entering a formula.

        Finally, you can change the units of your new series.

        Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
            Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD

        ADDLINE
        Type keywords to search for data
        Create user-defined line
        You can customize a graph by adding a straight line between two data points.
        FORMAT GRAPH
        Details
        Display
        Customize
        Frame
        Plot area
        Text

        Line 1
        Real Gross Domestic Product
        Line details & color

        Line style, thickness, color and position


        Line 2
        GDPNow
        Line details & color

        Line style, thickness, color and position


        Line 3
        Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP
        Line details & color

        Line style, thickness, color and position



        Fullscreen

        Notes

        Real Gross Domestic Product  (A191RL1Q225SBEA)

        Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

        Release: Gross Domestic Product  

        Units:  Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

        Frequency:  Quarterly

        Notes:

        BEA Account Code: A191RL

        Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

        For more information about this series, please visit the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

        Suggested Citation:

        U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, April 6, 2025.

        GDPNow  (GDPNOW)

        Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta  

        Release: GDPNow  

        Units:  Percent Change at Annual Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

        Frequency:  Quarterly

        Notes:

        GDPNow is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches. The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP with the chain-weighting methodology used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

        The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow release complements the quarterly GDP release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Atlanta Fed recalculates and updates their GDPNow forecasts (called "nowcasts") throughout the quarter as new data are released, up until the BEA releases its "advance estimate" of GDP for that quarter. The St. Louis Fed constructs a quarterly time series for this dataset, in which both historical and current observations values are combined. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA's release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter.

        For futher information visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

        Suggested Citation:

        Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDPNow [GDPNOW], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW, April 6, 2025.

        Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP  (BBKMCLE)

        Source: Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center  

        Release: Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes  

        Units:  Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted

        Frequency:  Monthly

        Notes:

        The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

        The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

        For more details, see also:
        Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
        Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1

        Suggested Citation:

        Indiana University. Indiana Business Research Center, Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP [BBKMCLE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMCLE, April 6, 2025.

        Release Tables

        Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
        Gross Domestic Product

        Related Data and Content

        Data Suggestions Based On Your Search

        Content Suggestions

        Other Formats

        Real Gross Domestic Product

        Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Index 2017=100, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted

        Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP

        Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted

        Related Categories

        GDP/GNP National Income & Product Accounts National Accounts

        Releases

        More Series from Gross Domestic Product More Series from GDPNow More Series from Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes

        Tags

        National Income and Product Accounts Real Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product Rate Quarterly Seasonally Adjusted Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America Nowcast Atlanta Fed Projection Headline Figure Copyrighted: Citation Required Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes Indexes Monthly

        Need Help?

        Questions or Comments
        FRED Help

        Subscribe to the FRED newsletter

        Follow us

        Back to Top
        Color format