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An Arbitrage-Free Three-Factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long-Term Yields and Distant-Horizon Forward Rates

An Arbitrage-Free Three-Factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long-Term Yields and Distant-Horizon Forward Rates

This research reviews a simple three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff and reports results obtained from fitting this model to U.S. Treasury yields since 1990. The model ascribes a large portion of the decline in long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates since the middle of 2004 to a fall in term premiums. A variant of the model that incorporates inflation data indicates that about two-thirds of the decline in nominal term premiums owes to a fall in real term premiums, but estimated compensation for inflation risk has diminished as well.

Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 
Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted1990-07-18 to 2017-09-29 (Oct 26)
 


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