Source: Hamilton, James  

Release: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index  

Units:  +1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Quarterly

The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%.

For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

Release: Gross Domestic Product  

Units:  Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Quarterly

BEA Account Code: A191RX

Real gross domestic product is the inflation adjusted value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.For more information see the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA). For more information, please visit the Bureau of Economic Analysis.