FRED Graph

Source: Chauvet, Marcelle

Source: Piger, Jeremy Max  

Release: U.S. Recession Probabilities  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996.

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago  

Release: Chicago Fed National Activity Index  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's web site:
http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/cfnai/current_data.cfm

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia  

Release: State Leading Indexes  

Units:  Percent, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: Interest Rate Spreads

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Series is calculated as the spread between 3-Month LIBOR based on US dollars (USD3MTD156N) and 3-Month Treasury Bill (DTB3).
Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department.

The 3-Month LIBOR based on US Dollars has been removed from FRED as of January 31, 2022, so this calculated series has been discontinued and will no longer be updated. Users interested in calculating a similar credit risk can use the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which has been identified as the rate that represents best practice for use in certain new U.S. Dollar derivatives and other financial contracts. For more details, see the article Transition from LIBOR from the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (AARC).