This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. It is based on a mathematical description of the way that recessions differ from expansions. The index corresponds to the probability (measured in percent) that the underlying true economic regime is one of recession based on the available data. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators that may not be released until several years after the event, this index is entirely mechanical, is based solely on currently available GDP data and is reported every quarter. Due to the possibility of data revisions and the challenges in accurately identifying the business cycle phase, the index is calculated for the quarter just preceding the most recently available GDP numbers. Once the index is calculated for that quarter, it is never subsequently revised. The value at every date was inferred using only data that were available one quarter after that date and as those data were reported at the time. If the value of the index rises above 67% that is a historically reliable indicator that the economy has entered a recession. Once this threshold has been passed, if it falls below 33% that is a reliable indicator that the recession is over. For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.
St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For more information, see Grover, Sean P.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; and McCracken, Michael W. “A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth" (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2016/12/05/a-macroeconomic-news-index-for-constructing-nowcasts-of-u-s-real-gross-domestic-product-growth/ )
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 20 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2016), "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/EPU_BBD_Mar2016.pdf)
BEA Account Code: A191RG A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Monthly GDP Growth is indexed to the quarterly estimates of real GDP growth from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and consists of three components: cycle, trend, and irregular components. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
The World Uncertainty Index determines uncertainty using the frequency of the selfsame word in the quarterly Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. Please see Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom and Davide Furceri (2018), 'The World Uncertainty Index' (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf) for additional explanation.
BEA Account Code: DPCCRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCERG A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)
BEA Account Code: W369RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: BPCCRO For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 20 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2016), "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/EPU_BBD_Mar2016.pdf)
BEA Account Code: A191RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCCRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A001RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCCRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The lagging subcomponent of the cycle expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents. For more details, see also: ave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
BEA Account Code: DTENRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A191RV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The cycle component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
Source ID: FL010000336.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FL010000336&t=) provided by the source.
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
BEA Account Code: DPCCRG The number of decimal places reported varies over time.
BEA Account Code: DHLCRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Coincident Index is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
BEA Account Code: DHUTRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The trend component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
BEA Account Code: B358RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: PC001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).
BEA Account Code: DGDSRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B712RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A712RV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCERV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DDURRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DSERRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DGALRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DSERRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: YC001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).
BEA Account Code: A001RV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B307RG A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)
BEA Account Code: DGDSRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DHSGRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DNRGRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DMINRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DOWNRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A001RG A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)
BEA Account Code: W368RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B825RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: Y033RV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: Y694RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The irregular component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
BEA Account Code: AB67RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B656RJ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A646RJ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCERJ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A253RJ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DNDGRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.