Federal Reserve Economic Data

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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: H.15 Selected Interest Rates  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Weekly, Ending Wednesday

Notes:

Averages of daily figures.

For additional historical federal funds rate data, please see Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954.

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve as it uses the Interest on Reserve Balances rate to steer the federal funds rate toward the target range.(2)

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target range. The Fed's primary tool for influencing the federal funds rate is the interest the Fed pays on the funds that banks hold as reserve balances at their Federal Reserve Bank, which is the Interest on Reserves Balances (IORB) rate. Because banks are unlikely to lend funds in the federal funds market for less than they get paid in their reserve balance account at the Federal Reserve, the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) is an effective tool for guiding the federal funds rate. (3) Whether the Federal Reserve raises or lowers the target range for the federal funds rate depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may temper economic activity by raising the target range for federal funds rate, and increasing the IORB rate to steer the federal funds rate into the target range. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may spur greater economic activity by lowering the target range for federal funds rate, and decreasing the IORB rate to steer the federal funds rate into the target range. (3) Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets.

The federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2)

References
(1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "Federal funds." Fedpoints, August 2007.
(2) Monetary Policy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
(3) The Fed Explained, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

For further information, see The Fed's New Monetary Policy Tools, Page One Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

For questions on the data, please contact the data source. For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here.

Suggested Citation:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Effective Rate [FF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FF, .

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC  

Release: Dow Jones Averages  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

The observations for the Dow Jones Industrial Average represent the daily index value at market close. The market typically closes at 4 PM ET, except for holidays when it sometimes closes early.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average provides a view of the US stock market and economy. Originally, the index was made up of 12 stocks, it now contains 30 component companies in various industries. See indexology for more information.

Copyright © 2016, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction of Dow Jones Industrial Average in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P"). S&P does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with subscriber's or others' use of Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Permission to reproduce this series can be requested from index_services@spdji.com. More contact details are available here, including phone numbers for all regional offices.

Suggested Citation:

S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJIA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DJIA, .

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates  

Units:  Japanese Yen to One U.S. Dollar, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

Noon buying rates in New York City for cable transfers payable in foreign currencies.

Suggested Citation:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Japanese Yen to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate [DEXJPUS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXJPUS, .

Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration  

Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report  

Units:  Number, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Weekly, Ending Saturday

Notes:

An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Employment and Training Administration, 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims [IC4WSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA, .

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City  

Release: Kansas City Financial Stress Index  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Starting with the September 14, 2021, release, the SNL U.S. Bank index, an underlying index used in the calculation of the KCFSI, has been replaced with the S&P U.S. BMI Banks Index on the S&P Capital IQ platform. As the replacement index provides limited historical data, the KCFSI uses predicted values for the S&P U.S. BMI Banks Index between 1989 and 2004, resulting from a linear regression of the replacement index against the original index. This methodology produces highly correlated values of the current KCFSI with previous values, suggesting a minimal effect on the KCFSI. To obtain further information please see: Financial Stress: What Is It, How Can It Be Measured, and Why Does It Matter?.

Suggested Citation:

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City Financial Stress Index [KCFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/KCFSI, .

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia  

Release: State Leading Indexes  

Units:  Percent, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.

Suggested Citation:

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, .

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange  

Release: CBOE Market Statistics  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

VIX measures market expectation of near term volatility conveyed by stock index option prices. Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission.

Suggested Citation:

Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE Volatility Index: VIX [VIXCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS, .

Source: Ice Data Indices, LLC  

Release: ICE BofA Indices  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

The ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. The ICE BofA High Yield Master II OAS uses an index of bonds that are below investment grade (those rated BB or below).
This data represents the ICE BofA US High Yield Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, "global" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US domestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.

ICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:
Index constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.

When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.

Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.

Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.

The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.
Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.
The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.
You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.
ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.
You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.
Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.
ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.
The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers.

Suggested Citation:

Ice Data Indices, LLC, ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread [BAMLH0A0HYM2], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2, .

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: Interest Rate Spreads

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

Series is calculated as the spread between 3-Month LIBOR based on US dollars (USD3MTD156N) and 3-Month Treasury Bill (DTB3).
Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department.

The 3-Month LIBOR based on US Dollars has been removed from FRED as of January 31, 2022, so this calculated series has been discontinued and will no longer be updated. Users interested in calculating a similar credit risk can use the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which has been identified as the rate that represents best practice for use in certain new U.S. Dollar derivatives and other financial contracts. For more details, see the article Transition from LIBOR from the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (AARC).

Suggested Citation:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, TED Spread (DISCONTINUED) [TEDRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEDRATE, .

Source: Ice Data Indices, LLC  

Release: ICE BofA Indices  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BBB.
The ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.

Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.

Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.

The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.
Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.
The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.
You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.
ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.
You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.
Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.
ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.
The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers.

Suggested Citation:

Ice Data Indices, LLC, ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread [BAMLC0A4CBBB], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB, .

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

Release: Gross Domestic Product  

Units:  Index 2017=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

BEA Account Code: A191RD

The number of decimal places reported varies over time. A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA).

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator [GDPDEF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF, .

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

Release: Gross Domestic Product  

Units:  Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

BEA Account Code: A455RC

For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business [A455RC1Q027SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A455RC1Q027SBEA, .

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Labor Market Conditions Index  

Units:  Index Points, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinued; the July 7, 2017 vintage is the final estimate from this model. The Board decided to stop updating the LMCI because they believe it no longer provides a good summary of changes in U.S. labor market conditions. Specifically, model estimates turned out to be more sensitive to the detrending procedure than expected, the measurement of some indicators in recent years has changed in ways that significantly degraded their signal content, and including average hourly earnings as an indicator did not provide a meaningful link between labor market conditions and wage growth.

The LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19, seasonally-adjusted, labor market indicators. Users can read about the included indicators at http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2014/updating-the-labor-market-conditions-index-20141001.html.

Users of the LMCI should take note that the entire history of the LMCI may revise each month. Three sources contribute to such revisions. The first source is new data that were not available at the time of the employment report. In particular, at the time of the Employment Situation report each month, the quit rate and hiring rate will be missing for the last two months of the sample because the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is published with a longer lag than the model's other indicators. In subsequent months, as these data become available, the LMCI will revise.

The second source of revision comes from revisions to existing data. Many labor market indicators are subject to revision as additional source data become available or to incorporate annual benchmark revisions or updated seasonal adjustment factors. Prominent examples in the LMCI include the three payroll employment series from the Current Employment Statistics program.

The third source of revision is inherent to the model. The LMCI is derived from the Kalman smoother, meaning that the estimate of the index in any particular month is the model's best assessment given all past and future observations. Thus, when a new month of data is added to the sample, the model will revise its estimate of history in response to the new information. In practice, these revisions tend to be modest and concentrated in the most-recent six months of the sample.

Suggested Citation:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Change in Labor Market Conditions Index (DISCONTINUED) [FRBLMCI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FRBLMCI, .

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States  

Units:  Millions of U.S. Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Quarterly, End of Period

Notes:

For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide.
With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights.
In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer provided by the source.

"

Suggested Citation:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Nonfinancial Corporate Business; Corporate Equities; Liability, Level [NCBEILQ027S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NCBEILQ027S, .

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis  

Release: Gross Domestic Product  

Units:  Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

BEA Account Code: A191RC

Gross domestic product (GDP), the featured measure of U.S. output, is the market value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.For more information, see the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product [GDP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP, .

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Quarterly

Notes:

This data series is part of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS). The purpose of the survey is to provide qualitative and limited quantitative information on bank credit availability and loan demand, as well as on evolving developments and lending practices in the U.S. loan markets. A portion of each survey typically covers special topics of timely interest.

For questions on the data, please contact the data source. For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here.

Suggested Citation:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and Middle-Market Firms [DRTSCILM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM, .

Source: Chauvet, Marcelle

Source: Piger, Jeremy Max  

Release: U.S. Recession Probabilities  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996.

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "
A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3.

Suggested Citation:

Chauvet, Marcelle and Piger, Jeremy Max, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N, .

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