Source: Indeed  

Release: Job Postings on Indeed  

Units:  Percent Change from Feb 01, 2020, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, 7-Day

Notes:

Indeed calculates the percentage change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, using a 7-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in January 2021 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the percentage change in job postings. For more information, see Frequently Asked Questions regarding Indeed Data.

Copyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information provided here.

End Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of, or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  

Release: Employment Situation  

Units:  Thousands of Persons, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed. This measure accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who contribute to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This measure provides useful insights into the current economic situation because it can represent the number of jobs added or lost in an economy. Increases in employment might indicate that businesses are hiring which might also suggest that businesses are growing. Additionally, those who are newly employed have increased their personal incomes, which means (all else constant) their disposable incomes have also increased, thus fostering further economic expansion.

Generally, the U.S. labor force and levels of employment and unemployment are subject to fluctuations due to seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts the data to offset the seasonal effects to show non-seasonal changes: for example, women's participation in the labor force; or a general decline in the number of employees, a possible indication of a downturn in the economy. To closely examine seasonal and non-seasonal changes, the BLS releases two monthly statistical measures: the seasonally adjusted All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) and All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYNSA), which is not seasonally adjusted.

The series comes from the 'Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey).'

The source code is: CES0000000001

Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc.  

Release: ADP National Employment Report  

Units:  Persons, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The January 2023 report presents the scheduled annual revision of the ADP National Employment Report (NER), which updates the data series to be consistent with the annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) benchmark data through March 2022. This is a recurring process that happens every year, and is a common practice for reports of this nature.

In addition to this regular, annual update, the NER weighting methodology was revised to facilitate an easier comparison of total employment estimates between the NER and QCEW; monthly aggregates now leverage weekly seasonal adjustments rather than a separate monthly seasonal adjustment; and the national aggregate is now constructed from industry aggregates. There was also a refinement in the labeling methodology which is used to determine how various employment sources fall into a particular industry and geography definitions. These changes were applied retroactively to the 13-year history of the NER.

Source: NASDAQ OMX Group  

Release: NASDAQ  

Units:  Index Feb 5, 1971=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

The observations for the NASDAQ Composite Index represent the daily index value at market close. The market typically closes at 4 PM ET, except for holidays when it sometimes closes early.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market capitalization weighted index with more than 3000 common equities listed on the NASDAQ Stock Market. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts (ADRs), common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and tracking stocks. The index includes all NASDAQ listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or debentures.

Copyright © 2016, NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC  

Release: Standard & Poors  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

The observations for the S&P 500 represent the daily index value at market close. The market typically closes at 4 PM ET, except for holidays when it sometimes closes early.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC have reached a new agreement on the use of Standard & Poors and Dow Jones Averages series in FRED. FRED and its associated services will include 10 years of daily history for Standard & Poors and Dow Jones Averages series.

The S&P 500 is regarded as a gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. The index includes 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, which are publicly held on either the NYSE or NASDAQ, and covers 75% of U.S. equities. Since this is a price index and not a total return index, the S&P 500 index here does not contain dividends.

Copyright © 2016, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction of S&P 500 in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P"). S&P does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with subscriber's or others' use of S&P 500.

Permission to reproduce S&P 500 can be requested from index_services@spdji.com. More contact details are available here, including phone numbers for all regional offices.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances  

Units:  Billions of U.S. Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Weekly, Ending Wednesday

Notes:

Feb 1984 - Dec 1990: Annual Statistical Digest, various issues, Table 2.
Jan 1991 to date: Federal Reserve Board, H.4.1.
Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are the difference between "total factors supplying reserve funds" and "total factors, other than reserve balances, absorbing reserve funds." This item includes balances at the Federal Reserve of all depository institutions that are used to satisfy reserve requirements and balances held in excess of balance requirements. It excludes reserves held in the form of cash in bank vaults, and excludes service-related deposits

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: Interest Rate Spreads

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

Series is calculated as the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR) and 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_3MONTH).
Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: Interest Rate Spreads

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average.
Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances (data not included in press release)

Units:  Billions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Data prior to 1991 are from various issues of Banking and Monetary Statistics and the Annual Statistical Digest. Data from 1991 forward are calculated using data from the H.4.1 Release - Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.
As of March 1, 2019, this series is calculated as a monthly average of fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WCURCIR.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  

Release: Consumer Price Index  

Units:  Index 1982-1984=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items (CPIAUCSL) is a price index of a basket of goods and services paid by urban consumers. Percent changes in the price index measure the inflation rate between any two time periods. The most common inflation metric is the percent change from one year ago. It can also represent the buying habits of urban consumers. This particular index includes roughly 88 percent of the total population, accounting for wage earners, clerical workers, technical workers, self-employed, short-term workers, unemployed, retirees, and those not in the labor force.

The CPIs are based on prices for food, clothing, shelter, and fuels; transportation fares; service fees (e.g., water and sewer service); and sales taxes. Prices are collected monthly from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 26,000 retail establishments across 87 urban areas. To calculate the index, price changes are averaged with weights representing their importance in the spending of the particular group. The index measures price changes (as a percent change) from a predetermined reference date. In addition to the original unadjusted index distributed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also releases a seasonally adjusted index. The unadjusted series reflects all factors that may influence a change in prices. However, it can be very useful to look at the seasonally adjusted CPI, which removes the effects of seasonal changes, such as weather, school year, production cycles, and holidays.

The CPI can be used to recognize periods of inflation and deflation. Significant increases in the CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of inflation, and significant decreases in CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of deflation. However, because the CPI includes volatile food and oil prices, it might not be a reliable measure of inflationary and deflationary periods. For a more accurate detection, the core CPI (CPILFESL) is often used. When using the CPI, please note that it is not applicable to all consumers and should not be used to determine relative living costs. Additionally, the CPI is a statistical measure vulnerable to sampling error since it is based on a sample of prices and not the complete average.

For more information on the consumer price indexes, see:
Bureau of Economic Analysis. "CPI Detailed Report." 2013.
Handbook of Methods
Understanding the CPI: Frequently Asked Questions

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  

Release: Consumer Price Index  

Units:  Index 1982-1984=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food & Energy" is an aggregate of prices paid by urban consumers for a typical basket of goods, excluding food and energy. This measurement, known as "Core CPI," is widely used by economists because food and energy have very volatile prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines and measures the official CPI, and more information can be found in the FAQ or in this article.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta  

Release: Sticky Price CPI  

Units:  Percent Change from Year Ago, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The Sticky Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively infrequently. Because these goods and services change price relatively infrequently, they are thought to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a more frequent basis. One possible explanation for sticky prices could be the costs firms incur when changing price.

To obtain more information about this release see: Michael F. Bryan, and Brent H. Meyer. “Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So.” Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (May 19, 2010): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  

Release: Employment Situation  

Units:  Dollars per Hour, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

The series comes from the 'Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey).'
The source code is: CES0500000003

The Average Hourly Earnings of All Private Employees is a measure of the average hourly earnings of all private employees on a “gross” basis, including premium pay for overtime and late-shift work. These differ from wage rates in that average hourly earnings measure the actual return to a worker for a set period of time, rather than the amount contracted for a unit of work, the wage rate. This measure excludes benefits, irregular bonuses, retroactive pay, and payroll taxes paid by the employer.

Average Hourly Earnings are collected in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program and published by the BLS. It is provided on a monthly basis, so this data is used in part by macroeconomists as an initial economic indicator of current trends. Progressions in earnings specifically help policy makers understand some of the pressures driving inflation.

It is important to note that this series measures the average hourly earnings of the pool of workers in each period. Thus, changes in average hourly earnings can be due to either changes in the set of workers observed in a given period, or due to changes in earnings. For instance, in recessions that lead to the disproportionate increase of unemployment in lower-wage jobs, average hourly earnings can increase due to changes in the pool of workers rather than due to the widespread increase of hourly earnings at the worker-level.

For more information, see:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Overview
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS Handbook of Methods: Chapter 2. Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Establishment Survey

Source: Ice Data Indices, LLC  

Release: ICE BofA Indices  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BBB. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.

Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.

Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.

The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.
Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.
The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.
You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.
ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.
You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.
Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.
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The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  

Release: Federal Funds Data  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

For additional historical federal funds rate data, please see Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954.

The federal funds market consists of domestic unsecured borrowings in U.S. dollars by depository institutions from other depository institutions and certain other entities, primarily government-sponsored enterprises.

The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is calculated as a volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions reported in the FR 2420 Report of Selected Money Market Rates.

For more information, visit the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago  

Release: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Weekly, Ending Friday

Notes:

The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets and the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's web site: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Source: Lewis, Daniel J.

Source: Mertens, Karel

Source: Stock, James H.

Release: Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock)  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Weekly, Ending Saturday

Notes:

The WEI is an index of real economic activity using timely and relevant high-frequency data. It represents the common component of ten different daily and weekly series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production. The WEI is scaled to the four-quarter GDP growth rate; for example, if the WEI reads -2 percent and the current level of the WEI persists for an entire quarter, one would expect, on average, GDP that quarter to be 2 percent lower than a year previously.

The WEI is a composite of 10 weekly economic indicators: Redbook same-store sales, Rasmussen Consumer Index, new claims for unemployment insurance, continued claims for unemployment insurance, adjusted income/employment tax withholdings (from Booth Financial Consulting), railroad traffic originated (from the Association of American Railroads), the American Staffing Association Staffing Index, steel production, wholesale sales of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, and weekly average US electricity load (with remaining data supplied by Haver Analytics). All series are represented as year-over-year percentage changes. These series are combined into a single index of weekly economic activity.

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see Lewis, Mertens, and Stock (2020), “U.S. Economic Activity during the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak.”

This index has been developed by Daniel Lewis, an economist in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Karel Mertens, a senior economic policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and James Stock, the Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy, Faculty of Arts and Sciences of Harvard University.

The index is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau  

Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development  

Release: New Residential Construction  

Units:  Thousands of Units, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Starting with the 2005-02-16 release, the series reflects an increase in the universe of permit-issuing places from 19,000 to 20,000 places.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: Recession Indicators Series  

Units:  +1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, 7-Day

Notes:

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below.

The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period.

The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series.

The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USARECD

The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USARECDP

The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle.

Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs).

Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.)

The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability.

OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

Source: Ice Data Indices, LLC  

Release: ICE BofA Indices  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA US Corporate C Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating CCC or below.
The ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.

Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.

Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.

The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.
Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.
The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.
You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.
ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.
You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.
Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.
ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.
The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers.

Source: Ice Data Indices, LLC  

Release: ICE BofA Indices  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BBB.
The ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.

Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.

Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.

The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.
Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.
The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.
You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.
ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.
You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.
Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.
ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.
The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers.

Source: Ice Data Indices, LLC  

Release: ICE BofA Indices  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA Single-A US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating A. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.

Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.

Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.

The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.
Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.
The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.
You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.
ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.
You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.
Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.
ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.
The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: An Arbitrage-Free Three-Factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long-Term Yields and Distant-Horizon Forward Rates  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

Kim and Wright (2005) produced this data by fitting a simple three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model to U.S. Treasury yields since 1990, in order to evaluate the behavior of long-term yields, distant-horizon forward rates, and term premiums. For the full paper, please go to http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2005/200533/200533abs.html

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration  

Release: Spot Prices  

Units:  Dollars per Barrel, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange  

Release: CBOE Market Statistics  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission.

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange  

Release: CBOE Market Statistics  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission.

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange  

Release: CBOE Market Statistics  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission.

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange  

Release: CBOE Market Statistics  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily, Close

Notes:

Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances  

Units:  Billions of U.S. Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Weekly, Ending Wednesday

Notes:

Currency in circulation includes paper currency and coin held both by the public and in the vaults of depository institutions. The total includes Treasury estimates of coins outstanding and Treasury paper currency outstanding. This definition of currency in circulation differs from the currency component of the money stock, a measure of currency used in some other Federal Reserve reports (for example, the H.6 release), which excludes currency held in vaults of depository institutions.

1984-1985 and Jan 11-Mar 15, 1989: Annual Statistical Digest 1984, 1985, 1989 Table 2.
Jan 8, 1986 to date except weeks ending Jan 11, 1989 - Mar 15, 1989: Federal Reserve Board H.4.1.

Source: U.S. Federal Open Market Committee

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: Summary of Economic Projections  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Annual

Notes:

The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections.

Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  

Release: Interest Rate Spreads

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_10YEAR) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_10YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average.
Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: H.15 Selected Interest Rates  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)  

Release: H.15 Selected Interest Rates  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Daily

Notes:

For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes and Treasury Yield Curve Methodology.